Mondesi = Malcontent

It's bad enough the Pirates have to compete with teams that have payrolls that are three times (Philly's), four times (Red Sox) and six times (Yankees) larger than their own, but to have a player quit in the middle of the season because of purported threats to his family, only to have him re-sign with another team a few weeks later is nothing short of disgusting.

Raul Mondesi did just that last week when, after the Pirates cut him for breach of contract, he signed a $1.75 million deal with the injury-depleted Angels. Luckily, Mondesi had a lucid explanation for his little hiatus:

"Now everything is getting better, so I decided to sign like 10 days ago. I said I wanted to go back and finish strong...My mind is so much better. Two or three weeks ago I was thinking too much and sometimes got a headache a little bit. Now everything is fine..."

Yeah, everything's fine if you're an immature, selfish 34-year old baseball player. The Pirates got left standing at the alter and it doesn't look like there's anything they can do about it. You could falt the Angels for signing Mondesi, but if they didn't another team would have.

Either way, this is a classless move on Mondesi's part and his lack of commitment shouldn't be rewarded with a $1.75 million payday. But I guess anti-Mondesi fans can take solace in the fact that he'll underachieve in Anaheim, just as he's done everywhere else, and will probably be out of baseball (again) before the end of the season.

JamesOn, UNC & Oklahoma

There's an interesting story in today's New York Times about JamesOn Curry -- the former UNC basketball recruit who had his scholarship rescinded after being arrested for selling drugs to an undercover cop and has since signed with Oklahoma.

Curry, who was originally recruited by Matt Doherty, was told by Williams that his scholarship would be honored unless he 'robbed a bank, or something.' After being indicted on drug charges, Williams recently said:

"Well, he did rob a bank, or something."

According to the article, there were other reasons Williams shied away from the all-time leading points scorer in North Carolina history. Williams' father was an alcoholic.

Mack Williams, who died May 16 at 79, was a disruptive force during Williams's youth. He and Roy's mother separated when Roy was in the third grade. An only child, Williams remembers living in desperate situations in the mountain region of western North Carolina.

"Things that happened in my childhood helped form the beliefs I have now...I've had a distant relationship with my father for most of my life. And I equate drugs like marijuana the way I do alcohol. I don't drink, I don't smoke and I've been married to the same woman, Wanda, for over 30 years. My father had five wives. And I would have serious problems dealing with someone who had sold and possessed drugs. I understand that JamesOn has been thought of as a good citizen beyond this incident, and I was impressed with him when I met him. And I've given second chances to some kids, but North Carolina wants to maintain a squeaky clean image.

"I consulted with the athletic director here, and the president of the university, and they both agreed with me."

Similarly, Oklahoma coach Eddie Sutton had reasons for giving Curry another chance (other than the fact that Curry offers immediate long-range depth to a team that made it to the final four last season).

Fourteen years ago, Sutton was given a second chance - by Oklahoma State. Sutton had previously coached at Kentucky, which was placed on probation for a recruiting violation under his watch. He resigned under pressure, though there were no allegations against him specifically. But Oklahoma State, his alma mater, provided him with another opportunity, and he has made the most of it.

In the long run, Oklahoma might be in the best interests of both Curry and UNC. Don't forget, the ACC is the same conference where fans have taunted Juan Dixon for losing both his parents, accused Rashad McCants of having a venereal disease and alledged that J.J. Redick drinks his own pee (OK, the last one's pretty funny). I can only imagine the torment Curry and his family would face as a convicted seller of drugs.

And even though Curry has for a lifetime wanted to attend UNC, his father makes the point why Oklahoma may be as good a place as any to start over:

"JamesOn would have suffered from the fans in the area, screaming all that craziness, not letting it rest."

He's probably right.

What comes around...

Remeber James Guillen, the 24-year old middle school coach who gave his player, Terrence Philo Jr., a "crybaby award" at the end-of-the-year sports banquet (if not see here and here)?

Well, Guillen got his comeuppance last week. According to Fox News, he had to present Terrence Philo Jr. with the Terrence Philo Jr. award -- in front of the whole school -- and give a speech about what a dope he was for first giving Philo the crybaby award.

Apparently the new award goes to the student who demonstrates dedication and team spirit. Philo was originally given the crybaby award for always pleading to get into games.

Last week Guillen gave the following speech:

"I would like to extend a special apology to the Terrence Philo family," Guillen, 24, told the boy in front of about 250 of his cheering classmates. He blamed his error last month on "my lack of experience as a coach and as a teacher."

Just a thought, but maybe the crybaby award can go to Plaxico, since he currently doesn't exemplify 'dedication and team spirit.'

That was close

The Red Sox almost pulled out a close one last night against the A's, but finally succumbed in the ninth. The final score: 15-2. Luckily, the Orioles did their part by getting smoked by the Yankees 18-5.

Nice work Baltimore. Can you at least pretend that you're not afraid to play a team from New York? And adding insult to injury, Derek Jeter is starting to hit. His average is now at a Wade Boggs-esque .211.

It's on like Donkey Kong.

Offense & Defense

According to two different stories in today's Pittsburgh papers, new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is spending a lot of time finding new ways for Hines Ward to beat double coverage and get more man-to-man looks. Unfortunately, Plaxico Burress won't share the same experiences until training camp (although Cowher is ready, willing and able to welcome Burress back to practice). Perhaps most importantly, it looks like Whisenhunt will eschew all the triple-reverse quarterback draws that Mularkey grew so fond of last season, and will instead focus on getting the ball to the guys that can score (namely Ward, Staley and Burress).

Defensively, it looks like new d-coordinator, Dick LeBeau will be implementing a lot more blitzing schemes which is good, but this will leave the cornerbacks in a lot of man-to-man coverage, which is bad -- at least initially. After Chad Scott gets burned for the 7th or 8th TD by week three, we'll see a lot more of Ike Taylor and maybe Ricardo Colclough.

Enemy number one?

The Providence Journal cites a recent Sports Illustrated poll of New York fans that counts Pedro Martinez as the "Biggest Enemy of the State" of New York. Apparently he earned 21% of the vote. The story goes on to say that George Steinbrenner was second with 19% of the vote and Bill Parcells was third with 8%.

Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox were the most hated New York opponent (43%) followed by the Miami Dolphins (22%). Everything seems plausible except for the Dolphins. Who hates the Dolphins in New York and why?

Are the Heels still looking at recruits?

The News & Observer reports that if head coach Roy Williams is still looking for recruits for next season he's doing it on the down low. Currently, UNC has only two players coming in: Marvin Williams and Quentin Thomas. At the beginning of the year, UNC had one of the strongest recruiting classes in the country, but JamesOn Curry's scholarship was rescinded after being arrested in a drug ring and J.R. Smith has since declared for the NBA.

Good news, bad news

The Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports that the Steelers have notified the agents of linebackers Kendrell Bell and James Farrior that they will open contract negotiations sometime next month. Both players are in the last years of their contract -- just like wide recevier Plaxico Burress. The only difference is that Bell and Farrior are in Pittsburgh working out with the team while Burress is at home in Miami playing XBox.

The article also reports that:

"Privately, Steelers officials have said they have no plan to negotiate a contract extension with Burress...A source close to Burress indicated he is acting on his own, that his agents did not advise him to stay away from minicamp or the other workouts."

If that's the case then Burress really is a dope. I could understand (at least on some level) if he had an agent chirping in his ear about how good he is and the Steelers are disrespecting him by not renegotiating his contract ASAP. But for him to do this on his own is ludicrous.

Apparently, some NFL personnel people realize that Burress has yet to live up to his potential and he's doing nothing to change that perception by sitting out. The story goes on to say:

"Steelers officials, players and various agents believe it is a strange tactic by Burress if it is over his contract. He has one year to play and will become an unrestricted free agent. Presumably, the more productive he is in 2004, the more money he will get in a new contract."

Given what's transpired over the last few weeks, that seems too logical for Burress to consider. I'm not sure what he hope to accomplish by sitting out, but doing this basically alienates him from the coaches, his teammates, the media and the fans.

When he comes back, his every move will be scutinized. And the first in-game mistake he makes will be accompanied by boos and jeers that even he's not used to hearing. If Burress just showed up to camp, practiced hard and went out and had a good year, the contract would take care of itself. Now, he's all but guaranteed he won't be back in Pittsburgh in 2005, and if he has another below-average season, he could be out of football in a few years. At which point I'm sure he'll wonder why the hell he was so stubborn in the spring of 2004.

This just in: Jeter still can't hit

I dislike Jeter as much as the next Red Sox fan, but I think I've had my fill of all the news stories reporting on his season long slump to date. Both the New York Times and Washington Post have lengthy articles explaining why Jeter has struggled in 2004.

Personally, I think it has nothing to do with A-Rod and I'm more inclinded to side with Thomas Boswell who writes:

...In Jeter's case, he swings at everything. More so now than in the past because, as Manager Joe Torre says, "he's overanxious." But Jeter has always been impatient. Roughly 40 percent of his at-bats this season have ended within two pitches.

That's a pretty telling statistic, but I have my own theory why Jeter is slumping -- his luck finally ran out. He's been extremely, extremely lucky since he first came up in 1995 and in 2004 his luck finally ran out. No more swinging bunt doubles, no getting jammed and hitting a pop-up triple over the first baseman's head. The song's over and it's time to pay the piper. Finally.

Vitale, Doherty & UNC

Collegeball has a link to Dick Vitale's recent rant on how unbelievable it is that Matt Doherty has yet to find work. Vitale cites the following examples as reasons this guy should already be employed:

Doherty brings to the table a tremendous work ethic and an unbelievable passion and love for the game...I can't believe a school with a head-coach opening wouldn't look at a candidate like Doherty and consider his consummate work. Think about how he was such a tremendous team player, blending in with the likes of Michael Jordan, James Worthy and Sam Perkins on that title-winning '82 team.

...Talk to anybody who knows him -- whether it's the Michelangelo of coaching, Dean Smith, or Roy Williams or anyone else who has been around him for any length of time. They will flat-out tell you that Doherty is a workaholic and a gym rat. He gives his ultimate effort and energy for the success of his program.

...Doherty knows what it means to face tough challenges and top competition, having coached the Irish in the Big East and the Tar Heels in of the ACC. His recruits helped get the Tar Heels back into the limelight this season.

...Doherty is ready to be a head coach again, and a school looking to rebuild would find him to be a perfect hire. His loyalty and integrity stand out. I've gotten to know him, and I feel that many athletic directors are making a mistake by not giving him a chance. If a job opens quickly, the AD should call Doherty -- he is ready, willing and able to be a success again at the college level.

Is it just me or does Vitale's whiny voice ring in your ear as you read this? Let's see, where to start. First let me say that I think Doherty got hosed last year. It should never be the case that players can run a coach out of town (unless the coach is choking players (Bob Knight), allegedly sleeping with undergrads (Jeff Jones), violating NCAA rules (Quin Snyder) or just wielding firearms (Nolan Richardson Jr.)). Dick Baddour, UNC's athletic director, showed no spine throughout the ordeal -- especially considering that he was the brains behind the operation responsible for hiring Doherty.

Back to Vitale. I don't think anyone doubts that Doherty worked hard, recruited hard and coached hard. The problem was with his style. You can cite the Bob Knights and Bob Huggins of college basketball, but you have to remember that players going into those programs knew what they were getting from the start. Dean Smith was known as a players coach -- and that's not to say he let players do whatever they wanted. Even today, former players (in both the NBA and the real world) call him regularly for advice -- and he willingly dispenses it. And his hand-picked successor, Bill Guthridge was the same way -- and players wanted to run through walls for both of them.

Enter Doherty and his seemingly endless engergy. The energy he brought to Chapel Hill wasn't the problem -- it was how he dealt with the players. I have no first hand knowledge of what transpired, but by the end of 2003, it looked pretty much like a mutiny in the making. Some players were going to meet Baddour with their parents and other players threatened to turn pro or transfer instead of playing one more season for Doherty.

So Vitale trumpeting his work ethic is the wrong point to make. No one disagrees with that. Doherty is also a great recruiter. He was responsible for Jackie Manuel, Jawad Williams, Melvin Scott, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and Sean May. He knows how to talk to kids -- until he gets them on the court. And I don't think any coach short of Jesus Christ could have won more than eight games in 2001. Doherty had to play both Adam Boone and Brian Morrison that year -- and they were the afterthought recruits of the retiring coach Guthridge.

Vitale also claims that Doherty is ready to be a coach again. I'm not sure how he knows that -- maybe the same way he knows that every telecast he does is a matchup between "two of the best programs in the country" -- but either way, Doherty may have to prove himself at a smaller school and work his way back up. And there were rumors earlier this year that Doherty was offered the James Madison job only to turn it down because the two sides couldn't agree on contract terms.

I'm sure in retrospect, Doherty probably wishes he never left Notre Dame -- or at least handled things differently at UNC. He was extremely successful his first (and only) year there, he is a really good recruiter and I'm sure he knows the game of basketball. But as his three-year's in Chapel Hill showed, big-time college basketball -- especially today's game -- is more about the psychology of coaching than the X's and O's.

This is how you build a winner

From today's Washington Post:

"Me and Rasheed just the other day talked about what kind of team we could have had there," Ben Wallace said. "I'll tell you a story. . . . Rasheed and I weren't actually there together. Rasheed got traded, and I came in later. When I got there they didn't ask me what jersey number I wanted to wear. . . . I'd worn No. 32 [in college]. But real quick, they gave me a jersey No. 30 that had 'Wallace' on the back. It kind of smelled like moth balls. . . . Then it hit me after some guys told me my jersey was on sale in some of the [sports] stores. All they had to do was give me Rasheed's jersey."

--Ben Wallace, former Wizard, commenting on how the Washington organization economized on uniforms by giving him Rasheed Wallace's old jersey.

Michael Wilbon goes on to document how many former Wizards are scattered throughout the league and are doing pretty well. I guess there's a reason Washington hasn't been to the playoffs in almost 20 years.

The first guy to dunk...ever

There's an interesting story in yesterday's LA Times (free subscription) about when and where the dunk first took place. Times writer Larry Stewart found John Isaacs, 88, who played on an all-black barnstorming team in the 1930s, and he this is how he remembered it:

"...the first person he ever heard of dunking was Jackie Robinson, who was only 5 feet 11. But he was the 1940 NCAA broad jump champion at UCLA, winning with a mark of 24 feet 10 1/4 inches.

"Guys would talk and people said that out in California, Jackie was the first one to elevate and go over the rim," Isaacs said."

Jackie Robinson also ran track and played football at UCLA and he actually played against a self-proclaimed 'awful athlete' from nearby Whittier College -- future president Richard Nixon.

This is weird

Mark Cuban has a story on his website about how the NBA head of officiating, Ed T. Rush is leaving the job to become an assistant football coach at Bloomsburg University in Pennsylvania. Here's a quote from the Huskies well-known kicker Garrett Bloom(?) on 'the new guy' spotted on the sidelines during a game last season:

"He looked familiar, but I had no idea who he was," Bloom admitted.

This spring, Rush has worked with Bloom as the Huskies’ new special teams coach. The West Chester University graduate and Hale’s close friend, has helped Bloom become more consistent this spring. "He got me to move my plant foot back about 6 inches," Bloom said. "It’s helped me become more consistent. I’m kicking it higher and farther and straighter. I used to hook it a lot."

Sweet. Not only does he know everything about NBA officiating, he's a special teams guru to boot! This is an interesting career change. But even though Rush is switching sports, I'm sure he must view it as a quality of life improvement -- especially given that he'll have to spend less time critiquing his employees performance and receiving critizism for his employees performance. Not only that, but he'll probably be able to operate in relative obscurity and do something he enjoys.

More importantly, whoever takes over for him as head of officials will hopefully re-implement the traveling violation. I saw more travels in 2003-2004 than I had seen in a lifetime of watching basketball.

Update: After watching the Pacers & Pistons last night, I think it's probably wise that Rush is changing careers. The game was officiated by what looked to be high school refs. It was awful. Charges underneath the basket, double-dribble calls that weren't double-dribbles and the always-popular phantom foul calls. The highlight however, was when ESPN's Jim Gray interviewed the Colts Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison during one of the timeouts and Peyton referred to Gray as "Dan." Nice.

Philip Rivers update

Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer described rookie QB Philip Rivers' first week of practice thusly:

"I think he's picked things up quite well, from a learning standpoint, which comes as no surprise to any of us...The timing and the speed and the people around you – all that, that's still something he has to get acclimated to."

But all things considered, it looks like Rivers is making solid progress. I wonder if the Giants are second-guessing their decision to take Manning. Maybe they should have either kept Rivers or just drafted Roethlisberger. New York gave up a lot to get Manning and they probably won't be competitive for three or four years. And given that their receivers are average, their line is awful and Tiki Barber can't go a quarter without a fumble, this season will only be a success if you loathe the Giants -- otherwise it might be tough to watch.

J.R. Smith signs with an agent

It's official. J.R. Smith has signed with an agent and the only way he'll be in Chapel Hill is if he's working the basketball camps.

Smith has decided to earn his basketball education on the end of an NBA bench instead of playing in college -- which is certainly his perogative, but I hope he didn't have some self-interested hanger-on filling his head full of grandiose thoughts, convincing him that he's the next coming of Kobe Bryant and that college would be a waste of his time (and money).

This quote is understandable when you consider it's coming from an 18-year old, but still kind of troubling nonetheless:

"I think I'm ready. I've really elevated my game to a higher level," Smith told ESPN.com after working out for the Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz and Clippers on Thursday. "The (high school) All-Star games convinced me that I have what it takes to play in the NBA. I got great feedback from the NBA (draft) committee. I was told I could go anywhere (from) No. 1 to No. 16."

A couple of thoughts. First, Smith's not going no. 1. If he does, whoever selects him should be forever banished to the NDBL. I'm also not sure that a high school all-star game is the best measure of a players readiness for the NBA. But I've made that and other arguments for staying in school here, here and here.

Hey, but at least I'm not bitter! Actually, I do hope he does well and turns out more like Kobe Bryant (on the court) than Joe Forte.

Finally, some youthful DBs
The new - old D-coordinator of the Steelers, Dick Lebeau has opted for youth over experience in the defensive backfield and it's been a long time coming. Jerry Dipaola writes that if the season started today, Chris Hope and Troy Polamalu would be the starting safeties and Deshea Townsend and Chad Scott would start on the corners. Second year player Ike Taylor and rookie Ricardo Colclough would also see a lot of playing time.

I suspect that three or four games into the season Scott will lose his starting job (strictly due to incompetence -- no politics here) and we'll get a glimpse of what a real defensive backfield looks like -- and it'll be a welcome change. Ever since the Bengals threw for over 400 yards in their 2001 overtime win against the Steelers, teams have been exploiting the DBs as slow and lacking coverage skills -- which time and again proved to be the case.

The infusion of youth also includes a lot more speed, better coverage skills while still maintaining the ability to stop the run. And given that the DeWayne Washington wasn't the best tackler on the field, it doesn't take much to improve there either.

Steelers fans have been clamoring for the last two seasons to see some youthful changes made in the back, and this will be the season it happens. I think it's a good move and one that will pay dividends as the season progresses and the games become more important.

Burress still celebrating Flag Day
For the second day in a row, WR Plaxico Burress was nowhere to be found -- and had yet to talk to anyone in the Steelers organization of his whereabouts. Ed Bouchette writes an interesting article in today's Pittsburgh Post Gazette about how Burress's absence has given 2001 seventh round pick, WR Lee Mays a chance get more playing time.

Coming out of UTEP, Mays was considered raw, but he was always known as a burner. He credits Burress with helping him learn to run routes and he's improved his pass catching ability. And while he's not a Plax-like 6'5", he's still a big receiver at 6'2" 200 lbs.

I think the best thing for the Steelers is for Mays to do well. Not only does he benefit, the organization benefits, and maybe it will prod the Plax puppetmasters to get their client back to work. I can only guess that Plax isn't the mastermind behind this sit-out. I get the impression that if it were up to him he'd be in Pittsburgh. But it looks like someone convinced him that he can get Randy Moss type money by taking a hard line. Well, it won't work in Pittsburgh because they'll let him walk -- and if next year's free agent WRs experience anything close to what this years free agent QBs are experiencing, Plax will be hard pressed to find a team to give him an outrageous contract.

In fact, Pro Football Weekly reports the following:

The 2005 free-agent class includes some intriguing names, including Miami's Chris Chambers, Jerry Porter of the Raiders, Joey Galloway (Buccaneers), Marvin Harrison (Colts) and Quincy Morgan (Browns). The cost for placing the franchise designation on a wide receiver in 2004 was $7.229 million; the Steelers would be insane to commit that much money to Burress given his inconsistent play and lack of dependability.

Second that. Maybe he is one of the top receivers in the NFL, but he hasn't proven it yet -- and it certainly won't prove it by sitting at home playing Xbox.

The new and improved Kyle Boller
According to the Baltimore Sun, Ravens QB Kyle Boller has grown into a more complete player this offseason and looks to be more of a leader in 2004. That may be, but the biggest problem facing this guy isn't opposing defenses, it's his new girlfriend. Apparently he's been dating actress Tara Reid this offseason and that's after her engagement to Carson Daly and also dating QB Tom Brady (nice wig).

How Boller moved to the front of the line is still unknown. What is known however is that when the 22 yr. old QB get's dumped by the 28 yr. old actress, the Ravens can all but mail it in. Their offense is on such thin ice as it stands, but how are they going to play when their starting QB gets dumped by Carson Daly's former fiance? Don't be surprised if Ray Lewis is the QB come November.

This guy should be Plax's mentor
From today's Washington Post:

Reds closer Danny Graves lost his wallet at the start of a West Coast trip last week and figured he would never see it again. The wallet contained his credit cards, his driver's license and about $1,400 in cash.

A man who cleaned the team's bus in San Diego not only returned the wallet and all of its contents, but took extraordinary precautions to make sure it would be safe during shipping.

"The guy kept the cash and exchanged it for traveler's checks so it wouldn't get stolen through the mail," Graves said. "It was like $1,400 in cash. He did say, 'I borrowed $26 to overnight it to you.'

"He sent his name, address and phone number. He said, 'All I ask for is could you please sign an autograph for my father.' He's going to get a little more than an autograph."

Flag Day is right around the corner

"If that's his excuse, Mother's Day, if that's what he said, then we have to abide by it...But what's his reasoning now? I don't know. I can't answer your question. I thought he would be here. Obviously he's not, and it's sad. I don't think it had to come to this situation anyway."

-Hines Ward, on his thoughts about Plax's whereabouts

Whatever Plax's excuse, I'm guessing he's really shot himself in the foot contract-wise by not showing up. If Plax does decide to test the free agent market next season, he might experience similar contract problems now facing the bevy of experienced, above average QBs currently looking for work. Be careful what you wish for -- and have a happy Flag Day.

Is coming out early a good decision?
Mark Cuban had an interesting post last week on his website about how to keep so many young players from entering the NBA early. In a sentence he suggests that the NBA should do away with guaranteed contracts for first round draft picks. Currently, first-rounders are guaranteed a payday while those players taken in the second round are guaranteed nothing.

As it is right now, if a player is drafted in the first round, their salary is set by their draft position, we are REQUIRED to guarantee that salary for at least 4 years. Given that the last pick in the draft makes more than 600k per year, for 4 years, the money to tempt the high school or underclassmen is there.

Get rid of guaranteed rookie contracts and all that changes. Then all of a sudden the odds come into play. So few players drafted in the 20s actually play in the NBA past their rookie contracts. They go from prospects to trade fodder to out of the league. Instead of hearing about busts on the bench collecting millions of dollars, with just anecdotal Lenny Cooke and Kenny Satterfield, expect to be 1st round picks and weren't stories, the stories would be about how the majority of players drafted in the first round don't make it through their rookie contracts.

This got me to thinking about the risks these high school players are taking by coming out early, especially when you consider than there are only 30 players that can go in the first round and currently there are 94 early entrants into the 2004 NBA draft.

In thinking about this, there seem to be two main components to the stay-in-school or come-out-early decision process. First, there's the probability a player is drafted in the first round. Second, there is the net present value of a professional contract -- can a player make more money immediately by coming out, or can a player make more in the long run by first going to college, gaining experience and going through the draft process in a year or two?

To make this clearer, I'll look at two high school players who are considering skipping college and going straight to the NBA, Shaun Livingston and J.R. Smith. Livingston is projected to go as high as 4th in the draft and will most assuredly be a lottery pick. Smith is slotted to bet taken anywhere from 15th to 25th with some guarantees of being taken in the first round, but nothing definite.

Considering the two main components I mentioned above (the probability of being drafted in the first round -- and getting a guaranteed contract, and the net present value of coming out early), we can create various scenarios and determine what's in the best long-term interest of the two hypothetical players.

For computational ease, let's say that in 2004, rookies can be paid no more than $1 million a year and contracts are three years in length. Also, assume interest rates are 5 percent. Let's also say that if a player is a lottery pick, he will be paid the maximum: $1 million per year for three years. If a player is taken in the first round (but is not a lottery pick) he will be paid $750,000 per year for three years.

Player	Prob(drafted)	HS-NBA Payoff	Coll-NBA Payoff
Livingston	100%	2,723,248	2,470,066
	85%	2,314,761	2,099,556
	75%	2,042,436	1,852,550

Looking at Livingston the first thing you notice is that if his probability of getting drafted is the same after college as it is after high school, he'll make more in the long-run by coming out early (after high school). But it's rarely the case that a player doesn't improve his draft position by honing his skills in college for a year or two. That said, given that Livingston is likely to be a top-4 pick, it would be very difficult for him to improve his draft position by going to college. Speaking frfinancialtly finaincial viewpoint, it makes sense to come out early.

On the other hand, a player like J.R. Smith might be wise to go to college -- at least for a year -- and try to improve his skills.

Player	Prob(drafted)	HS-NBA Payoff	Prob(drafted)	Coll-NBA Payoff
Smith	33%	674,004	50%	926,275
	50%	1,021,218	60%	1,111,530
	50%	1,021,218	75%	1,389,412

Let's say that Smith has a 33% chance of being taken in the first round. Assuming that he's not a lottery pick, that means he'll get a $750K contract for three years -- or a total contract worth $2.25 million. Given that he only has a 1 in 3 chance of being a first round pick and calculating the present value of his entire contract (at 5% interest), the net present value of his 3-year, $2.25 million contract is worth $674,000 (this is calculated by taking the net present value of $2.25 million and multiplying it by 0.33 -- the probability of being drafted in the first round).

His payout increases as the probability of him being taken in the first round increases. A 75% chance of being drafted compared to a 50% chance of being drafted increases Smith's payout by over $350,000. If we were talking about real rookie contracts with big-time dollars, the difference would be in the millions -- and this doesnÂ’t even include endorsements.

If by going to college for a year, Smith is able to increase his probability of being drafted from 33% to 50% -- and given that his contract remains the same, he's effectively increased his worth by over $250,000. And this is a conservative estimate -- I'm assuming that rookie contracts remain constant -- which of course isn't true. What's most important however, is a player increasing his probability of being drafted in the first round. And this may be the hardest thing to measure.

Outside of those players taken in the first few picks, seemingly anything can happen when talking about draft order and as a result it's hard to put a probability on being taken in the first 30 picks. But it's also undeniable that going to college can only increase a player's attractiveness to NBA teams (barring injuries).

It's pretty obvious this post is geared at UNC recruit J.R. Smith, who has declared himself eligible for the NBA draft. He's most assured to make more money in the long-term by going to college for a year or two, but at present, he feels he's ready for the NBA. That, and if he's taken in the first round, he'll be financially set for (probably) the rest of his life. It's hard to quibble over the few 'extra' hundreds of thousands of dollars Smith could make by going to college and increasing his stock when he's faced with making millions immediately. But he's yet to sign an agent so he still retains his college eligibility, and I'm sure Roy Williams will be very interested in how this unfolds.

How does Plaxico really compare?
There’s an article in yesterday’s Pittsburgh Post Gazette by Ed Bouchette droning on about how the Steelers may have put themselves behind the eight ball by not pursuing a receiver this offseason either through free agency or the draft. The impetus for this article I suspect, was the fact that Plaxico Burress missed last week’s three-day minicamp because (as we found out later) he was spending time with his family. Specifically Bouchette writes:

Missing minicamp won't matter a bit how Burress plays this season. The real test will begin Tuesday when the Steelers' voluntary spring drills begin. Burress has a new offensive coordinator, a new receivers coach and a rookie quarterback to help break in, and if he misses a large chunk of the workouts, it could harm him on the field and make sure he does not play in Pittsburgh after next season.

In the meantime, the Steelers did not protect themselves by picking a wide receiver in the draft. Burress helps Hines Ward see a lot more single coverage, and if he's not there or his heart's not in it, the dominoes will fall on Ward, too.

I agree with the first paragraph -- and I suspect that Burress will be in Pittsburgh for the individual workouts starting tomorrow -- if for no other reason than he was taking part in voluntary workouts before minicamp.

The second paragraph seems a little fatalistic because we’re talking about Burress missing a three day minicamp that in the long run won’t mean a thing -- and it certainly won’t determine how well the Steelers do in 2004. Nonetheless, it got me to thinking how Burress’s drop off in production compares to other Steelers and here’s what I found.

Player	Rec	Yds	Avg	Year	% Off Yds	% Rec
Hines Ward	95	1163	12.2	2003	0.33	0.18
	112	1329	11.9	2002	0.33	0.20
Plaxico Burress	60	860	14.3	2003	0.24	0.11
	78	1325	17	2002	0.33	0.14

A couple of things immediately stick out. First, Hines Ward’s production has been consistent from 2002 to 2003 -- at least in terms of the percent of passing yards he accounted for (% Off Yds column in the table above). In both 2002 and 2003 he accounted for 33% of all passing yards. Burress slipped from a 2002 total of 33% to a 2003 total of 24%. Ward’s performance is all the more impressive when you consider that in 2003, the Steelers struggled so mightily on the offensive line that Maddox was sacked 41 times and the running game finished next to last in the league. For Ward to duplicate his 2002 performance certainly underscores how impressive his season really was.

In terms of receptions, Ward accounted for 20% of all receptions in 2002 and 18% in 2003 (% Rec column in the table). Burress accounted for 14% in 2002 and 11% in 2003.

A lot has been made about the fact that Burress’s yards-after-catch are abysmal -- especially when compared to Ward’s. But what’s important to remember -- and often overlooked – is the fact that Burress is more of a deep threat while Ward makes his living as a possession receiver who runs great routes. It’s obvious that Burress’s production dropped from 2002 to 2003. It was especially obvious if you watched any of the games. What’s not so evident is why Burress’s production dropped (other than the fact that he dropped a lot more passes than he did in 2002).

	2003 Avg	2002 Avg
Hines Ward	12.2	11.9
Plaxico Burress	14.3	17

Ward’s average yards per reception only declined 3 % from 2002 to 2003. Burress however, saw a decline of 16 % in his yards per reception. And this can't entirely be blamed on Burress.

First, because of the instability along the offensive line, Tommy Maddox had less time to throw the ball down the field. As a consequence, he had to focus on underneath routes or face the possibility of being sacked. In fact, Maddox’s sack total increased 37% from 2002 to 2003 (26 in ’02 and 41 in ’03). Underneath routes imply that possession receivers like Ward, Randle El and Doering saw more passes than Burress might’ve seen on deep routes. This is partly responsible for why Burress’s yards per reception dropped from 2002 to 2003 while Ward was able to maintain his production.

What’s also important to keep in mind is that Maddox’s production dropped as well. Maddox increased his attempts by 38%, his completions by 27% and passing yards by 20% (primarily due to him playing in more games). However, what helped to contribute to the overall decline in offensive production for the Steelers was that Maddox’s completion percentage declined by almost 5%, yards per attempt declined by 12%, touchdowns passes declined by 10% while interceptions increased by 6%.

I’ve already mentioned this a few times here, but it’s worth repeating -- everyone knows that the problems on the offensive line affected every other aspect of the offense. While Ward’s production remained constant, Burress’s production declined by 9% in terms of reception yards and 3% in terms of receptions. And while Maddox threw for more yards in 2003 than in 2002, his completion percentage and TDs decreased while in INTs increased.

It looks like Burress’s decline in production is due more to the overall struggles of the Pittsburgh offense. That’s not to say that Burress isn’t responsible for dropped passes, falling down after catches and not running crisp routes. But the fact that Ward was able to maintain his consistency in 2003 given all the offensive woes should be all the more impressive given the circumstances than the fact that Burress (and Maddox -- and for that matter, the entire Steelers offense) had an off-year.

Of course the true test will be if Burress can have a big year in 2004.

Looking to the NBA draft
ESPN.com has a story detailing all the early entrants into this June's NBA draft and what their professional futures may hold. What's interesting is that of the 94 early entrants, 56 are college and high school players.

Given that second round contracts aren't guaranteed that means that only 30 of the 94 players will have guaranteed contracts. There is some wiggle-room however. First, college early entrants who have yet to sign with an agent have until June 17 to withdraw their name. Also, high school early entrants who have yet to sign with an agent (and fail to do so through draft day) can opt to still go to school if they aren't first round picks.

These last two rules certainly favor the players and it's a good way to minimize the downside of being an early entrant -- namely not getting drafted and automatically losing your eligibility. Still, there will be some players who insist on chasing their dream now rather than in a few years, even when the prospects of immediate success in the NBA are slim at best.

An example of one such player is Donta Smith, who up until last week was headed to Louisville. Apparently, he had second thoughts and has made himself NBA draft eligible. To say this didn't sit well with head coach Rick Pitino would be an understatement:

""This was very poor judgment," Pitino said. "He never called and discussed it with me. I couldn't be more upset with the player, and I'm very, very disappointed with the (junior-college) coach. That's as poor a leadership from the coach as I've ever seen."

Andy Katz has scouting reports on most of the high school and college early entrants. Here's a look at his take on Duke and UNC early entrants, and for good measure, his opinion of Donta Smith's chances.

J.R. Smith
Smith is considered to be a great talent. He could go as high as in the later half of the lottery. He'll likely impress scouts when he does individual workouts this month and in June. Scouts love his big-time range as a shooter and his athleticism. Some team will likely bite and take him in the late lottery or mid-teens at the latest. That's probably high enough to keep him in the draft and out of Tar Heel blue.

Luol Deng
Deng's decision is a tough one. He knows he needs another year to be a better player. He could use the year to become more selective in his shooting, improve his ballhandling and become a more effective wing. But there is incredible financial family pressure. Deng could go as high as the third pick overall, likely to Chicago, if he were to stay in the draft. It's a hard call, but Deng will likely stay in the draft because the opportunity is too good to pass up.

Shaun Livingston
Livingston had to declare. He's simply going too high in the draft to turn down the opportunity. NBA scouts know that he could use one to two years of college to toughen and strengthen himself. But they're still willing to take him high in the lottery, as high as No. 4 to Charlotte. That's too good to pass up. He likely won't ever play for Duke.

Donta Smith
This one shocked the Louisville coaching staff. They never figured the JUCO small forward would declare for the draft. They shouldn't be worried. He'll likely get humbled fast and realize he's not close to being in the first round, let alone the second right now, and go back to school. But the fact that he thinks he's ready is still remarkable.

The rise of the knuckleballer
There's an interesting story (link via Baseball Crank) in the New Yorker about the evolution of the knuckleballer and how it currently is the chic thing to do (if being considered a non-ahtlete can be chic). There's a lot on Tim Wakefield and also what the future holds for up-and-coming knuckleballers (how often do you hear that phrase?).

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It's probably good that T.O. went to Philly
Yesterday's Baltimore Sun has some quotes from the always loquacious Ray Lewis. Suffice it to say that Terrell Owens won't be missed in Baltimore.

Lewis on having to face Owens after actively trying to persuade him to join the Ravens: "What did he do against us when he was in San Francisco? What's the difference if he's in a Philly uniform?

"If I'm correct, he might have had two to three catches at best. So with my defense right now, there are not too many people we are going to give that much respect to. He's a guy we've already handled.

"You can have an individual be a superstar if he wants to, but if they don't believe in your chemistry, it will never work. That's one of the main reasons why I think Terrell Owens saw he wouldn't fit it. We're a family."

Ray Ray also had some thoughts on how the Cleveland Browns will fare in 2004:

"I don't disrespect Cleveland, but Cleveland just doesn't have enough right now. That's as simple as it gets. It's a lot of togetherness that you have to go through before you reach great, even before you reach good as a team. Just by having big names over there means nothing. I saw Jeff Garcia, and he's done nothing against us."

The Browns are used to this kind of stuff, but if I'm TO I somehow find a way to pull a hamstring the week of the Ravens game because Lewis thinks he has yet to reach his potential:

"This season is going to be scary because it is probably going to be one of my best seasons ever," Lewis said. "When you are dealing with my shape, my mentality and everything I'm believing in right now, my thing is to be the greatest ever - not linebacker, [but] greatest ever."

Yikes.

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The Giants & the Steelers
Mark Madden of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette has a story today about what a bunch of whiners the New York Giants are for complaining that new head coach Tom Coughlin is too demanding (and this is only minicamp). I often disagree with a lot of what Madden says because he says things that are usually inflammatory, if for no other reason than to get a reaction out of people.

Well his story today is both accurate and pretty funny (I know I've never said that about a Madden article):

"Besides whining about Coughlin, the Giants' vets have their knickers in a twist over the departure of QB Kerry Collins. They apparently felt that a hot Collins...could have lifted the Giants from 4-12 to playoff contention. I'm not sure Y.A. Tittle in his prime could do that with these softies.

Then there's the potential addition of Bible-thumping Kurt Warner and his wife to the mix. Deliver us from evil, indeed.

Don't leave out mega-redneck Jeremy Shockey, who has been seen in the company of Paris Hilton. You can never study too much film. If Cowher considered the situation in NY, NY...he wouldn't begrudge Plaxico Burress a few days off. Maybe Plex is with Raul Mondesi."

He goes on to make fun of Eli Manning and make the often overlooked point that even though the Steelers were awful last season, you never heard one player, coach or front office type complain about any of the millions of things you can complain about when you win six games. I guess there's something to be said for that -- unless the Steelers go 6-10 again this season.

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So that's what happened
Plaxico Burress will be on The Sporting News radio today to explain that he missed minicamp not because he's upset about his contract situation but because he was spending time with his family during Mother's Day. Burress's mom died two years ago.

"I don't always make the right decision, but I do what I feel is right. The fact that the camp was on Mother's Day weekend was inconsiderate towards the guys on the team, especially since they stress family first."

Burress may have a point, but if that was the case, why didn't he or his agent call the Steelers and let them know? I can't imagine Cowher vehemently refusing to let Burress miss the three day minicamp for family reasons.

I like Burress and think he's an important part of what the Steelers are trying to do offensively. When he plays well, he makes Hines Ward's job easier, Jerome Bettis's (and now Duce Staley's) job easier and he makes Tommy Maddox's job easier. My first hunch is to think that Burress may have been upset about the contract, but then after some thought, changed his mind (but that's just a hunch, what do I know).

"If it was based on my contract, then I never would have showed my face around there during the offseason," he said. "Several weeks before camp I sat down with the coaches and watched film. I was there for two or three weeks during the offseason. I don't see how anyone could say this has anything to do with my contract."

Burress kind of addressed why he didn't contact the Steelers, but it still leaves at least one question in my mind: Wouldn't one phone call explaining your situation have mitigated all the concerns from media, players and coaches?

"I didn't care if they thought it was a misunderstanding. When it comes to my family, everything else is obsolete. Nothing else matters. I didn't feel I had to explain anything to them (Steelers coaches) or the owners for any reason. I made the decision based on how I felt and what I felt was really important to myself and my brothers.

"I've had people upset with me in the past and missing a three-day camp is not going to hurt me. I made that decision based on myself and I didn't really care what anybody else thought. I think it was totally inconsiderate by having a camp on Mother's Day especially since there are four other weekends in May."

The good thing is, Burress will probably be back in Pittsburgh next week to resume voluntary workouts and by the time the season starts, this will all but be forgotten -- which is a good thing for everyone trying to forget a 6-10 record from a season ago.

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Christmas comes early
The USA Today reports Wednesday that Deion Sanders will not be back on the NFL Today, CBS's pregame show. According to the article, Sanders wanted $2 million for the 2004 season while CBS was only willing to offer $1.3 million. Sanders made $1 million last season.

Citing that he knew what the market would bear, Sanders felt that he should have at least been offered $1.5 million.

"I got a call from (CBS Sports President) Sean McManus on Tuesday that stated it's been wonderful and I tried," Sanders said Wednesday. "I know business is business. But it's not like I don't know the market. Just try to meet me halfway."

Apparently some portion of CBS viewers actually enjoyed Sanders' antics (maybe these are the same people who thought Rush Limbaugh brought insightful commentary to the ESPN pregame show), while others found his opinions lacking substance. Mark me down -- twice -- as being in the latter group.

What's really funny is that Deion actually thinks he has something to offer in the way of insight.

"Said Sanders: "I don't think anyone in the profession did as much as me. I did interviews and features. I would have done them weekly but they also had Lesley (Visser) and Marcus (Allen). A lot of guys have been around the NBA longer than LeBron James, too. But (the Cleveland Cavaliers) saw fit to take care of him. It's not how much you've been around but how much you've done lately.""

Now if we're talking about Sanders the player, there was arguably no better cover cornerback ever. If we're talking about Sanders the football analyst, he ranks right up there with Lisa Guerrero.

Here's the thing, Sanders is an egomaniac that takes himself way too seriously. I'm glad he's gone because he didn't add anything to the show; and the only person probably more excited about his departure than me is his co-host Jim Nantz.

I think Nantz is one of the all-time great sports announcers. After the NFL season he does college basketball with Billy Packer (although he has more fans than Sanders, I think CBS would be better without both of them). After the NCAA's Nantz serves as the commentator (along with Lanny Wadkins) for CBS's coverage of the PGA Tour.

As much as I like Nantz, he must have been a horrible person in his previous life because no matter the sport, he always seems to be stuck with some dope as his co-host. Well, one down, two to go.

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Gambling & college athletes
ESPN reports that more than one percent of athletes admitted to accepting payment to play poorly in a game.

On the surface one percent doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but I guess the an important question is who comprises this 'one percent.' Is it the starting quarterback or the second string punter? While this has an impact on the outcome, it certainly does nothing for the integrity associated with being a 'student-athlete' (of course the whole student-athlete thing has been a joke with the likes of Lawrence Phillips and Maurice Clarett).

Maybe the most interesting part of the story was the following:

The study also found that almost 35 percent of male student-athletes admitted to having engaged in some type of sports wagering behavior in the past year, compared to only 10 percent of female student-athletes. Division-III student-athletes are the most likely to engage in gambling or sports wagering, while Division I student-athletes are the least likely, according to the release.

The fact that men gamble more often than women isn't interesting at all. But what is eye-catching is the fact that D-3 athletes are a lot more likely to get involved in gambling that D-1 athletes. If I had to guess before reading this story, I would put my money on D-1 athletes being much more involved in gambling. But after some thought, I guess it makes sense when you're talking about 'gambling activities' -- which basically includes everything. I doubt seriously that D-3 athletes have any opportunities to fix games, if for no other reason than how many point spreads do you see for the Amherst / Williams basketball grudge match?

So while D-1 athletes probably account for most of the game-fixing, D-3 athletes are much more likely to be involved in all other forms of sports gambling. Curiously, the media doesn't talk a lot about the pervasiveness of gambling on college campuses. I've been out of college for almost ten years, and it was a really big problem then as well. The real question is what will Myles Brand do to alleviate sports gambling on college campuses. Whatever happens, this problem certainly won't go away easily.

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Is starting your rookie QB a bad thing?
In the last week I've talked a few times about Eli Manning and Philip Rivers (here and here), the two QBs taken early in the first round, and the only two rookies QBs who will probably begin the season as starters. With all the pressure that Manning has already faced from his shaky minicamp debut, I got to wondering if starting a rookie had ill-effects on his career long-term -- particuarly when compared to QBs who didn't start until later in their career. Most people think that any experience is good experience and as a result, rookie QBs gain more in exposure than they lose in bruised egos.

I took a look at all QBs that have been in the league since 1990 through 2001 and I grouped them into those that started as rookies and those that didn't (specifically, I looked at rookies that started at least 6 games their first season). To get a very general measure of QB success I calculated TDs - INTs for each QB and I also calculated each QBs winning percentage (modified to reflect wins scaled by number of games started -- I'll call it 'expected wins').

I modeled a QB's expected wins per season being dependent on:

* whether a QB started as a rookie (the theory being that more playing time means long-term dividends in the way of experience, poise...etc)

* the difference between a QB's TDs and INTs (call it TD_INT)

* the number of years a QB plays in the league

The results show that for every additional TD a QB throws while keeping INTs constant, increases his expected wins by 0.24. For example, if Tommy Maddox throws four more TDs than INTs he'd be expected to win one more game than he would have won if he threw the same number of TDs as INTs.

For each additional year in the league, QBs are expected to win 0.12 more games. So a QB in his sixth season is on average expected to win almost a half a game more (0.48) than a QB in his second season -- over the course of the year.

The biggest effect on winning percentage however is if a QB started as a rookie. Simply by starting as a rookie, a QB's expected wins per season increases by 1 full game.

Of course there are a lot of variables that aren't taken into consideration here. First, many of the QBs that start as rookies were first round draft picks and therefore more likely to succeed as professionals than players taken later in the draft. Second, it follows that if a team uses a high pick to take a QB then that team must have had a pretty poor record the previous season. In all likelihood, winning percentage will increase just because the team won so few games the previous season -- and that's how the draft should work, creating some sense of competitive balance. Finally, the players surrounding a QB and they type of offensive philosophy are very important variables in determining a team's success and that is something I didn't consider here.

While none of this is earth-shattering, it is at least interesting to see how starting a rookie QB affects the number of wins a team can expect. Given this, on average, there doesn't seem to be any deleterious long-term effects to starting a rookie QB, and in fact it looks to be a good investment. Knowing that, it will be interesting to see how Manning and Rivers (especially Manning) cope in their first seasons. And one more thing, unless Roethlisberger plays like a veteran All-Pro during training camp, don't expect to see his mug on the field after the preseason. Of course if he does manage to make it on the field in 2004, it can only help the Steelers long term, right?

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Hanging on by a thread
Last week I mentioned that both high school All-Americans Shaun Livingston (Duke) and J.R. Smith (UNC) had made themselves eligible for the NBA draft. And because they had yet to sign with an agent, the players had until June 17 to still choose to attend college.

I was wrong (again). According to the Charlotte Observer, high school players can actually be drafted and still choose to go to college -- as long as they don't sign with an agent or accept any money.

This probably won't make any difference to Shaun Livingston, who's projected to go as high as fourth (to the Charlotte Bobcats), but this could be important for J.R. Smith. He's projected to go anywhere from 14th to late in the first round, and he says he needs to be a lottery pick to justify staying in the draft. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

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I pledge allegiance to...Manny Ramirez
Manny Ramirez had an excused absence from last nights drubbing by Cleveland because he was becoming a U.S. citizen. I have to admit, I had no idea he wasn't already, but that's why we had to watch replacement left fielder Brian Daubach almost get hit in the head with a fly ball in the first inning. It could have been very Canseco-esque. Either way, I'd never thought I'd say to myself, "boy, the Red Sox sure do miss Manny's glove in left."

In fact, I'd settle for an outfield of Manny and Johnny Damon -- and that's it -- at least until Trot Nixon comes back. Manny and Johnny can't be worse than having Daubach and Millar on the corners. They are so bad it's hard to watch. I'll take this opportunity to reiterate my support for Rickey Henderson.

Now that Manny's a citizen, I wonder if he'll vote in November. Maybe he and Affleck can team up and introduce 'their candidate' at rallies across the country.

One other question: Why did Manny wait until the season to become a citizen? I know the Red Sox said something about if he didn't do it now he may have to wait a year, but did this sneak up on him? Doesn't he have an agent that should be up on this kind of stuff? Anyway, I'm not convinced that Manny was actually in Miami. Have you seen the Indians Ron Belliard? He looks like Mini-Manny. And I'm not convinced it actually wasn't Manny reliving past glory in an Indians uniform (Belliards about a foot shorter and a foot wider than Manny, but those are frivilous details).

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A look at the other QBs
Minicamp is over and by all accounts Ben Roethlisberger was above average. He made some mistakes, but the overall feeling was a good one.

The same can't be said for Eli Manning's first practices, and to a lesser extent, Philip Rivers's. And while these minicamp performances are probably not indicative of how these two will play during the regular season, at the very least, it's interesting to see how they cope with failure after experiencing so much success.

ESPN reported the following on Manning:

There were three mishandled exchanges -- with three different centers -- and a cathartic moment in an 11-on-11 drill when Manning simply froze; if it had been a game, defensive linemen Lorenzo Bromell and Martin Chase would have filleted him. The punch line was a parabolic heave that looked more like a punt because Manning slipped when he released it. Tim Carter reeled it in only because the two defenders slipped as well.

Michael Strahan said Manning looked like "a deer in headlights right now."

Philip Rivers had a little easier go of it, but head coach Marty Schottenheimer wasn't as positive about the experience as Rivers was (from the San Diego Union).

How was rookie Philip Rivers' first day in minicamp with the Chargers? "He struggled," head coach Marty Schottenheimer said of the former North Carolina State quarterback.

It probably didn't help that Rivers' first pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage. Uh-oh. I thought that wasn't a problem for him despite the fact that he throws side-armed. Someone must have been standing in the passing lane. Actually, I'm sure it's not that big a deal, but if Rivers had been drafted by Pittsburgh and that happened on his first play as a Steeler it would have made the front page and probably would have been the lead story on the local news.

One less thing Cowher has to worry about. Now if he could only get Plaxico to show up for practice.

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This could decide the AFC North
The Steelers just got one step closer to being re-crowned division champs when EA Sports put the Ravens Ray Lewis on the cover of Madden 2005.

The problem if you're a Ravens fan is that the last three players to grace the cover of Madden were injured the following season. USA Today reports:

*Madden 2002 star Daunte Culpepper, quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings, suffered a knee injury, and his team ended up with a losing season.

*Madden 2003 cover figure Marshall Faulk, the star running back of the St. Louis Rams, went on to a sub-par season.

*Madden 2004, featured Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, who broke his leg in the preseason and missed most of the regular season.

Ray Lewis is unfazed, and promises to break the curse. As a Steelers fan I will take any edge I can get.

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Some thoughts on the Steelers
Well minicamp is over and the Steelers are already a new team. Or at least that's what they make it seem like when you read the Pittsburgh papers. Whether that's actually the case or if it has more to do with everyone just being excited about football, I thought I'd take a look at what the 2004 Steelers might look like.

Offensive line
Everyone seems excited about Kendall Simmons. The fact that he was diagnosed with diabetes during training camp last season (and lost 40lbs) created a big hole on the right side of the O-line. Marvel Smith's has recovered from a pinched nerve that kept him out most of last season and the offensive line looks revamped and ready to go. There wasn't any mention of how Max Starks performed over the weekend and the Steelers are only an injury or two away from last season's problems. But for now, this unit is an improvement over what was on the field last season

Quarterback
Tommy Maddox is the starter, he's no longer pouting about the Steelers drafting Ben Roethlisberger and he's getting a raise. Most of the focus was on the rookie QB and most of the comments were positive. This will be a good situation for Roethlisberger because he's under no pressure to play in 2004 and can learn from veteran QBs Maddox and Batch. Cowher has intimated that he won't keep four QBs so this could be Brian St. Pierre's swan song.

Wide Receivers
There have been several stories floating around about why exactly Plaxico Burress was a no-show at minicamp. His agent said it was for personal reasons, but he neglected to tell anyone that he wouldn't participate. Others seem to think Burress may be peeved about the Steelers moving too slowly to re-sign him. I hope it's the former, because if anything, the Steelers are notorious for not being bullied when it comes to contract negotiations. If you don't think so, ask Rod Woodson. Woodson and the Steelers were $75K apart on a contract and Pittsburgh didn't budge -- and Woodson was gone. Woodson was probably more valuable to the Steelers than Burress has been so far, and any attempt to strong-arm the Rooneys probably won't work.

Now, for the other receivers. There wasn't much talk outside of Burress, but the Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El lined up as the starters -- which makes them the shortest WR duo since the Redskins had the smurfs.

Running Backs
Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis were saying all the right things during minicamp, and maybe some of it is actually genuine. The good thing is that the Steelers can use both of them -- especially if: (a) the O-line holds up and (b)they can both stay healthy. Bettis pounded out a few 100 yard games at the end of the season (of course that was against the Raiders and the Chargers, but when you're 6-10 you can't quibble about details) and should have one more season in him (how many pre-seasons can you say that). Staley averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season and will hopefully help the Steelers return to a game plan that involves a run-first pass-second approach.

Defensive Backs
This may be the most important upgrade for the Steelers and it will be the position(s) that will have changed the most by the start of the season. Already the secondary has been described as 'fast' -- certainly not a word associated with Pittsburgh's defensive backs in some time. FS Chris Hope and SS Troy Polamalu (both 23), CBs Deshea Townsend (29) and Ike Taylor (24) were the starters (Chad Scott had an ankle injury and missed the weekend practices) and they drew good reviews from the coaches.

New (old) defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has already made it clear that he plans to blitz -- a lot -- and to do so will require a competent defensive backfield. If minicamp is any indication (and often it's not) these four guys (not to mention this year's second round pick, Ricardo Colclough) should make LeBeau's job a lot easier.

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A glimpse of the future
Finally. A refreshing article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette about what the the Steelers secondary may look like in the near future -- although maybe not this year. Either way, Ike Taylor, Troy Polamalu, Chris Hope, Deshea Townsend and this year's 2nd round pick, Ricardo Colclough were all on the field at the same time (in the nickel defense). Townsend was the elder statesman of the group at the ripe old age of 29.

Second-year CB, Ike Taylor got a decent amount of playing time last season -- especially in the nickel and dime packages, and hopefully Colclough will progress at a similar pace. And while MLB Kendrell Bell stepped immediately into the starting lineup in 2001, his primary duty was to stop the ball (he came off the field on 3rd downs) and Colclough's responsibilities will be a little broader. Consequently, he'll probably be a little slower finding his way on the field full-time -- although if Chad Scott plays like he has the last few seasons, Taylor and Colclough could both get a lot more playing time -- and that probably ain't a bad thing.

Strike one
Whether Plaxico Burress is trying to make a point going into his contract year or even if he had the start date of minicamp mixed up (like the Titan's Albert Haynesworth), missing the first day of minicamp is not a good way to start the 2004 season.

The Pittsburgh Tribune Review is reporting that Burress didn't show up for the first day of camp and Bill Cowher wasn't amused.

"We are disappointed in his decision," said a visibly perturbed Cowher. "We are ready to move on, with or without him."

Pittsburgh fans genuinely want to like Burress, and barring some catastrophe, this will only reinforce in the minds of many that Burress relies too much on talent and views working hard as a task for lesser athletes (I mean, look where working hard got Hines Ward)

Burress's contract is up at the end of the season and despite what Cowher may say publicly, he is a very important part of the future of this Steelers offense. I've mentioned before that despite all the talent Ward and Antwaan Randle El have, they are not the downfield threat that Burress is. And given that the 2005 season will probably be Ben Roethlisberger's first as the starter, he'll need to surround himself with as many weapons as possible.

I hope Burress got lost on the freeway or had a flat tire, because if he intentionally skipped minicamp, it sends the wrong signal to the players, coaches and the fans, and perhaps more importantly, it could have long-term implications on the Steelers success.

The biggest dope in the world award
Is this the guy you want teaching special education and coaching middle school basketball?

"A basketball coach who gave a 13-year-old player a "Crybaby Award" will be banned from coaching, sent to sensitivity training and ordered to make a public apology."

This would be funny if it wasn't so disturbing. The thing is, I'm guessing this dopey coach just finished watching the Bob Knight story on ESPNClassics and he thought it would be cool to treat one of his kids like Neil Reed. What's really worrisome is that the coach is only 24 years old -- it wasn't like he was some crotchety, jaded old man. He should be demoted to the guy who has to throw the sawdust on the vomit when kids get sick and more importantly, he should never be allowed to coach again.

Now playing 2nd base, Spiderman...
Any time Ralph Nader comes out in opposition of something, I immediately take the other side, even before I know what he's coming out against. Well this whole Spiderman-advertising-on-the-bases thing is absurd and you would think someone running for president would find better uses for his time. In addition to Nader, baseball purists decry the fact that this is one more black mark against the game and this will further sully the sanctity of baseball. Let me ask you something -- who are these purists and where were they when MLB was facing real problems like rampant steroid abuse and out-of-control salaries?

To paraphrase Allen Iverson, "We're talking about Spiderman."

Who gives a crap. If no one had mentioned that there would be four-inch spider-webs on the bases, no one would have made a peep (except for perhaps those annoying veiwers who think it's their right to call the t.v. producer of every PGA tour event and rat out some player who may or may not have broken some arcane rule). Nader was so outraged that he sent an incendiary letter to Bud Selig. In it he makes the following suggestion:

It's gotten beyond grotesque," Nader said. "The fans have to revolt here. Otherwise, they'll be looking at advertisements between advertisements."

Revolt? Is he crazy? Look, there are bigger issues in MLB than spider-webs. In fact, I'm all for in-game advertising if it limits (or even does away with) commercials.

Unless the advertisers actually want Spiderman to play 2nd base, I don't care what they do. Soccer shows advertising in the upper corners of the t.v. during each uninterrupted half. The European PGA superimposes advertising on the fairways and golfers are plastered in advertisements. I'd think that golf may be more steeped in 'tradition' and 'purism' than baseball, but most of the controversy concerns advancement in techonology, not over-advertising.

I think Dusty Baker gets right to the point, and it's a good one:

"I don't care," he said. "You've still got to touch base, whether they got spiders, scorpions or snakes on them."

If you really want to get my attention, but Nader out there at 2nd base -- maybe in a Spiderman costume.

The Steelers, Tommy Maddox and the future
Currently the Steelers have four QBs on the roster but Bill Cowher made it clear that that won't be the case when final rosters are settled. Currently Tommy Maddox is the starter, Charlie Batch is the backup and Brian St. Pierre is the third QB. Of course there is the small matter of QB of the future, Ben Roethlisberger -- who's the reason for all this hand-waving and reshuffling.

Roethlisberger will in all likelihood be the starter in 2005. He'll probably be the third string QB this season which means that if Maddox is the starter, either Batch or St. Pierre is gone. Stan Savran made the point that if the Steelers cut St. Pierre they would effectively be wasting a fifth round pick (St. Pierre was drafted in the 5th round of the 2003 draft). That's a horrible reason to keep a player -- especially when you consider that a few years ago, WR Troy Edwards was a first round pick and by all accounts he was a bust -- no matter how long he stayed on the team. Savran also argues that getting rid of Batch will free up some cap room, but the guy is only scheduled to make $800,000 (with a $200,000 roster bonus), so it's not like you're getting rid of Peyton Manning's contract.

I think the safe bet is that St. Pierre will be cut and Batch will again be the backup this season. But Batch understands how this game works, and after the season there will be changes -- especially when you have a franchise QB waiting in the wings:

"You can't compete with money...You can compete with a player, but you can't compete with money. At the end of the day, the owner is going to come in and say, 'Why isn't my guy playing?'"

So the real question isn't who'll be around this season, but instead, who'll backup Roethlisberger in 2005 and beyond, assuming he's ready to start next season?

Batch is a few years younger -- and maybe better -- than Maddox and he might try to be a starter somewhere in 2005. Of course Maddox could use the same argument, but the problem is that when the NFL is seemingly inundated with good QBs, starting jobs are hard to come by. If you don't think so just ask Kerry Collins, Tim Couch, Kurt Warner, Vinny Testaverde, Jeff Blake and to a lesser extent Kordell Stewart (as an aside, here's an interesting story about Kordell -- still unsigned, but still looking).

A quick look around the league and you don't see many chances for a QB like Maddox to come in and start. I'm sure a lot of teams would be clamoring to have him as a backup, but to bring him as a starter would be a stretch (off the top of my head I can't think of one team that would rather have Maddox as their starting QB instead of the incumbent). His best bet, bravado aside, is to probably come back to the Steelers as Roethlisberger's mentor and the backup QB. [The Steelers should also reward Maddox by giving him a real contract. $750,000 for 2004 (even though they finally decided to rework it) is a joke. I don't care that he signed it fresh off his MVP stint in the XFL. He's a starter in the NFL and shouldn't make less than the backup]

Not only would he be valuable as a backup, but could conceivably do it for five or six more years. Maddox may prefer to take his chances in free agency or via a trade after the season, but I don't think it will get any better than what he has Pittsburgh. He's popular and the city is rabid about football -- he'd be hard-pressed to find that anywhere else.

Who knows, maybe Maddox will be lights-out in 2004 and win the starting nod in 2005. Just kidding (if you need a reason, just refer to Batch's quote above).

Madden on Guerrero
Mark Madden has an article in today's Pittsburgh Post Gazette that I can't disagree with (and trust me, it wasn't from lack of trying). He's right on with a couple of observations concerning Lisa Guerrero and her stint on Monday Night Football:

*She only lasted one year. Dennis Miller was too smart for 99 percent of America. Eric Dickerson was the human incarnation of Mushmouth from the Cosby Gang. Both should have come with subtitles, but for very different reasons. Yet each got two years on "Monday Night Football." ABC ran Guerrero off after one. Guerrero thus has to be considered the show's biggest liability ever.

*She couldn't last in a totally unnecessary job. When was the last time a sideline reporter broke news or provided true insight? It just doesn't happen. A sideline reporter's primary job is to not mangle things. Guerrero couldn't even manage that.

*Guerrero got fired Monday, and was replaced by the eminently qualified Michele Tafoya. Tafoya has 80 percent of Guerrero's looks, but 10 times her ability. Those are percentages I can live with.

I don't think Guerrero's incompetence was news to anyone, but it makes you wonder why it's so hard to get a stiff on the sidelines that can not only read cue cards, but can form sentences without sounding like they're learning a new language. This won't be a problem for Tafoya, who's professional, smart and actually knows sports. Melissa Starks was good (especially given her competition), but Tafoya will be the first person in a very long time who may actually add something insightful the next time Al Michaels says, "let's go down to the field for a report from Michelle..."

Steeler DBs are hard at work
Second year players, CB Ike Taylor and S Troy Polamalu have spent much of the offseason in Pittsburgh working out and preparing for the NFL season. Polamalu will start at strong safety after the Steelers released free safety Brent Alexander earlier this winter (SS Mike Logan will move to FS). Taylor was the biggest surprise of last year rookie class playing well in his few opportunities.

It's encouraging to see these guys working hard during the offseason because you know that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are probably working harder. The real question is what is Chad Scott doing to get better before the season starts?

Guerrero out, Tafoya in
After the NFL Draft, this might be the second big football story of the offseason. ABC has replaced sideline reporter Lisa Guerrero with the older, but infinitely more capable, Michelle Tafoya.

I was always curious why the NFL needed sideline reporters. I guess originally they were intended to give the viewer an up-close look at the action on the field and offer some behind-the-scenes information that you couldn't get by listening to the commentators in the booth.

That may have been the original intent with O.J. Simpson and Lynn Swann, but in recent years we've seen the likes of Eric Dickerson, Melissa Starks and most recently Lisa Guerrero.

Dickerson seemed to have trouble forming sentences and most of his commentary offered absolutely no insight -- in fact, I'm guessing it was a diversion while Michaels made a sandwich or got a refill. I was indifferent when Starks was the new sideline voice, but after she was replaced by Lisa Guerrero, I quickly realized how good Starks was. From the start, Guerrero struggled, and while she was may be the most attractive sideline reporter on MNF (A case could be made for Starks -- especially when you consider she was a much better reporter), I don't think that makes it OK to be a horrible on-air presence. Guys love looking at attractive women, especially at sporting events for some reason, but that's why most teams have cheerleaders (incidentally, Guerrero was a LA Rams cheerleader not too long ago).

Guerrero has one more year on her contract and ABC hopes to keep her in some capacity. Might I suggest she team with Dick Vitale to do college basketball games. That way ABC can have two people who have no idea what they're talking about, but watching those two work together might be worth it.

No surprises
It came as no real surprise when after scheduling a press conference, UNC recruit J.R. Smith decided to skip college (at least for now -- he didn't hire an agent) and make himself eligible for the draft. Shaun Livingston, who was headed to Duke, also declared for the draft (he too didn't immediately sign with an agent). Both players have until June 17th to withdraw from the draft.

The Charlotte Observer is reporting that both players will probably go in the first round, but Livingston is the safer pick.

"Livingston [is] a safe bet to go in the top 10, primarily because he is a point guard with the length of a shooting guard or small forward."

Smith, a 6-6 wing player, is more likely to go in the mid-to-late teens. He shot up the draft charts based on spectacular performances in prep all-star games in Chicago and Oklahoma City.

The whole idea of making career decisions based on a few games is in my mind a bad one, but at least Smith didn't yet sign an agent. What's really troubling are comments like this from Smith:

"At times I shocked myself with what I can do...The three (all-star) games I did play in, after talking to the players, they were like, thinking, 'Man, you should come out (into the draft).' "

I saw the McDonald's game and Smith looked spectacular but you have to take that with a grain of salt -- all-star games are intended to showcase offensive talent, not identify the Gary Paytons and Bruce Bowens of organized basketball.

As a Tarheel fan hoping to see him play in Chapel Hill next fall, I begrudgingly wish Smith success and hope his NBA career follows closely that of other former UNC players, with the notable exception of the player is game most resembles -- Joe Forte.