Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Playoffs?!? Playoffs!?! (Commence Headache Edition)

Here it is, folks: Israel's Steelers' Playoff Update. Frankly, I haven't given much thought to all the possible scenarios because, well, I'm a lot more lazy than smart. Luckily, everybody's not like me. Enjoy (Oh, and if you can't tell, Cartman's got his fingers crossed):
OK boys and girls, here is where we are holding, as best as I understand the rules. Glenn will surely correct me if I am wrong, as he did yesterday regarding Cin-Ind.

The Steelers win the head-to-head tiebreaker against KC and lose to Denver and Jacksonville. They also lose the tiebreaker to Cincinnati by virtue of a lesser record against common opponents. We lose the one-on-one tiebreaker to Buffalo because we lost six conference games, while they lost five.

We win one-on-one tiebreakers against the Jets and the Titans by virtue of a better record against common opponents.

The one tiebreaker scenario I haven't done yet is if we have a three way tie with Tennessee and the Jets. That depends on strength of victories, which we cannot figure out yet because there are too many games to be played. (Maybe we can, but I haven't tried.)

So. If Denver beats Cincinnati and SF, they get the first wild card at 10-6, so we have to hope Buffalo loses at least one (Ten and Bal) and Jacksonville loses two (NE and KC), to save us those losing tiebreakers. Then we need the Jets to lose to either Miami or Oakland. Since the Titans are likely to lose at least one to Buf and NE, that looks like the easiest way to get in.

If on top of that Denver loses to SF, they go 9-7, but lose the first tiebreaker to KC based on their division records assuming KC beats Oakland. That would allow either Jax or Buffalo to get the first wild card and the Steelers would still get the second.

Picture this - Jax, KC, Pit, NYJ and Den all go 9-7, with no one going 10-6. Jax gets the first wild card and Pit gets the second. So Jax does not have to lose to NE, as we have been assuming all along.

So for the DENVER beats CINCINNATI scenario, we need KC>Jax & (Mia or Oak)>NYJ & (Ten or Bal)>Buf & (NE>Jax or SF>Den or KC>Oak). (I think that's right,)

Keep in mind, that Hou>Ind would be useful, because it would give Baltimore an incentive to beat Buffalo, because it would matter for the bye. (Ind has the tiebreaker over Baltimore.)

If Cincinnati beats Denver, then the Bengals get the first wild card.

Here we have a bit less flexibility. We must have (KC>Oak or SF>Den) & KC>Jax & NE>Jax & (Mia or Oak)>NYJ & (Ten or Bal)>Buf.

I am not goint to look at Denver and Cincinnati playing to a tie. Or any other ties.

I suspect that the hardest item in both scenarios is Pit>Bal.