Sunday, March 28, 2004

Is Sonny Vaccaro good for Basketball?
Sonny Vaccaro, the founder of the Roundball Classic, can't imagine why high school senior All-Americans Shaun Livingston and Marvin Williams (set to attend Duke and UNC, respectively) would choose college over the NBA. In a story reported in the Charlotte Observer last week, this is what Vaccaro had to say:

"...In these days of watered-down drafts and guaranteed contracts, anyone who knows he's a first-round pick is risking more than he's getting out of the college experience."

"...I think it's a no-brainer. They have to do it," said Vaccaro, who also represents a sports shoe company. "It's good that kid is getting an education. But that kid can put $3 million in the bank before he's 21 and still get an education later."

"...I think if you're guaranteed to go anywhere (in the first round), then you've got to go."
Vaccaro is generally acknowledged as a controversial figure in amateur basketball. The NCAA has been trying for years (unsuccessfully, I might add) to invent rules that make it more difficult for Vaccaro to do what he does best -- recruit young stars by providing perks that often appear to skirt the line between ethical and otherwise.

Vaccaro argues that providing benefits to players went on long before he was around and his primary concern is the players best interest -- "You can't find a kid I've hurt," he says.

While he may be a great judge of talent, I'm not convinced that just because a player might go somewhere in the first round they should forego college all together simply for a guaranteed NBA contract. First of all, the contract isn't guaranteed until you're drafted in the first round. And as it stands, there are 29 teams in the NBA and 12 high school seniors who have already declared for the draft. Conceivably, all 12 have every intention of getting drafted in the first round, otherwise it would be pretty risky to come out. And I'm not even considering all the college and international players who will make themselves eligible for the draft. At some point, you have to stop telling kids they should come out (preferably when you realize that there are more players who are worthy of being taken in the first round than there are teams with first round picks) and maybe encourage them to hone their skills in school for a year or two -- or at the very least, be honest with players who are marginal first round picks about their prospects of making it in the NBA.

By the way, what's so wrong with an 18 year old actually going to college? They're eighteen. Is it imperative that they grow up on the end of an NBA bench instead of on a college campus with people their own age? Is that so much more beneficial for their career in the long term? It's been widely reported that Kobe Bryant spent a lot of time alone when he was new to the league and that could have been due in part to the fact that he was a lot younger (and had less in common) than his teammates. Would Bryant have been better served going to college? Maybe, maybe not. At the very least it probably wouldn't have hurt his progress -- both as a player and a young adult. Granted, players like Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Lebron James are exceptional talents. But don't forget that players like Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O'Neal struggled mightily their first few years in the league and it's not clear that going to college would have slowed their professional growth.

Don't get me wrong, I think players like Lebron James have every right to come out early. He was the best player in amateur basketball last year. But for every James story there are many more stories of players that were convinced they were better than they really were. Junior PF Mario Austin was convinced that he would be taken in the first round in the 2003 draft and left Mississippi State early. He ended up being taken in the second round by the Bulls, told there wasn't any room on the roster for him and not only didn't make it in the NBA, but he lost his last year of NCAA eligibility. Is Austin blameless? Certainly not, but the fact that he was 'guaranteed' to be a first round pick and it didn't materialize underscores how important the decision to come out early really is. And I don't think it can be dismissed cavalierly with a wave of the hand as Vaccaro suggests. And simply uttering, "If you're going anywhere in the first round it doesn't make sense to go to college," doesn't mean it's true.

When talking about Livingston and Williams Vaccaro went on to say:

""I think Shaun Livingston will be a 10-year all-star and a potential top-50 (NBA) player when it's all over. I think he is brilliant,"

..."I think Marvin Williams will be a 10-year all-star. He's so gifted, watching him run and handle.""
Vaccaro might be right, but I think his comments sound more self-serving that prophetic and unless every scout, GM and player personnel guy agrees, I'm not convinced Livingston or Williams should go pro (OK, maybe Livingston should forego college because he's going to Duke). I think it says something when 18-year old Livingston makes the most lucid point:

"It's all about timing. If the timing's not right, then college is probably the best decision."