Heels, Sox & Steelers

Keep Nomar & Manny

(This is a little dated, but the season is still a few months away)
While many Red Sox fans were salivating over the prospect of getting ARod for Manny, I don't think it would have made the Red Sox a significantly better offensive team. The first thing Epstein would have done after getting ARod would be to trade Nomar for a left fielder. One name that was mentioned a lot before the whole deal went south was Magglio Ordonez (more on him later). The additional cost to the Red Sox (at least monetarily) seems to outweigh any on-field gains. Bill James aside, comparing Nomar and ARod over the last five years on a per game basis, we see that their numbers are pretty similar (AR is Alex Rodriguez and NG is Nomar Garciaparra).

.........AR.........NG
AB.....3.8.........4.0
R.......0.8.........0.7
H.......1.2.........1.3
2B.....0.2.........0.3
3B.....0.0.........0.0
HR.....0.3.........0.2
RBI....0.8.........0.7
TB.....2.3.........2.2
BB.....0.5.........0.3
SO.....0.8.........0.4

Over the course of a 162 game season we'd get these stats:

................AR...............NG
AB..........620.6...........649.7
_R..........133.1...........118.1
_H..........188.6...........215.8
2B...........31.9............51.3
3B............2.3.............6.9
HR...........50.8............27.6
RBI..........135.6...........117.3
TB..........377.6...........363.7
BB...........86.1............53.0
SO..........129.5............58.8

The big difference is in home runs (51 to 28 for ARod), doubles (51 to 32 for Nomar) and strikeouts (130 to 59 for ARod). It can be argued that the difference in hits is offset by the difference in walks and they're essentially a wash.

Given these numbers (and an ounce of common sense), there's no disputing that ARod is the best player in baseball. And he has been more durable over his career than Nomar, but I'm not sure that necessitates giving up two former batting champions to have the best player in the world at $25 million a year. Of course I recognize this analysis is based solely on the numbers and does not account for presence in the clubhouse, relationship with fans and (maybe most importantly) defense. Many would argue that Manny is an out of touch, pampered, spoiled athlete who should be traded--probably true. But Nomar is one of the most popular athletes in New England, and some might contend the cornerstone of this Red Sox team. And together these two have been very productive in the middle of the lineup and I'm not sure that ARod and Magglio would improve on their numbers. In fact, looking at the combined per game averages of ARod and Magglio (A/M) versus Nomar and Manny (N/M) we see that the team of Nomar and Manny is, on average, more productive than ARod and Magglio.

............A/M......N/M
AB........7.7........7.7
R..........1.5........1.5
H..........2.4........2.5
2B........0.5........0.6
3B........0.0........0.1
HR........0.5........0.5
RBI.......1.6........1.6
TB........4.4........4.6
BB........0.9........1.0
SO.......1.2.........1.2

Again, if we project these numbers over the course of 162 games we'd get these stats:

................A/M.............N/M
AB..........1241.5..........1243.2
_R...........238.6...........241.1
_H...........382.0...........412.5
2B............73.5............91.3
3B.............4.6.............8.8
HR............83.9............73.5
RBI...........257.7...........265.5
TB...........716.5...........742.0
BB...........145.5...........156.0
SO...........201.5...........195.3


Nomar and Manny win every category except home runs and strikeouts. Despite 10 fewer home runs, Nomar and Manny have 30 more hits, 18 more doubles, 11 more walks and 8 more RBI. Looking solely at these stats and the fact that ARod makes $25 million a year, it's hard to justify how acquiring ARod and Magglio will make the Red Sox a better team--at least offensively, when compared to last year.

Of course, if Nomar had signed the contract Epstein offered at the beginning of the season this would all be moot. But then what would Red Sox fans talk about all winter other than how much they hate Jeter.