Heels, Sox & Steelers

How Many Games will the Steelers win in 2004?

With only six months until the start of the 2004 season, here is my prediction on how the Steelers will fare. Before I get to the prognostications though, let me give some background on how I came to the win-loss total.

First, let me say that these numbers are based solely on the Steelers win-loss performance from the last 30 years. They do not account for Hines Ward having a 100-catch season, Jerome Bettis rushing for 1,000 yards or Tommy Maddox throwing for 3,000 yards. That said, this is more of a statistical exercise than one based on roster moves and draft picks. Either way, it gives me a way to kill time until the start of the season.

Looking at the Steelers winning percentage over the last 30 years (including playoffs and Super Bowls but not preseason) we notice the following trend:

From 1971 to 1980 the Steelers won 71 percent of their games. From 1981 to 1990, they won only 49 percent. During the Bill Cowher era (1992-2003), the Steelers won 60 percent of their games.

Using a time series model that estimates the Steelers winning percentage for a given year based only on past performance, we get the following results:

From 1971 to 1980, the model estimates that the Steelers won 74 percent of their games (compared to the actual winning percentage of 0.71). From 1981 to 1990, the model estimates that the Steelers won 47 percent of their games (compared to the winning percentage of 0.49). Finally, with Bill Cowher as head coach (1992-2003) the model estimates a winning percentage of 59 percent (compared to an actual of 60 percent).

Using 30 years of data, the model predicts that in 2004 the Steelers will win 53.2 percent of their games. Multiplying 16*0.532 = 8.51 (where 16 is the number of games played in a season, 0.532 is the estimated winning percentage in 2004 and 8.51 is the number of games won), which I will round to 9. So according to the Steelers win-loss record over the last 30 years, they will go 9-7 next year. Of course I would love nothing more than to have them go undefeated all the way through the Super Bowl, but based on their past performance, they're more likely to win 9 regular season games. Let's hope that's an underestimate.