Fearless Predictions

Alright, let's get to it.

... The Steelers released Mike Logan and Russell Stuvaints leaving them with one FS safety on the roster: Tyrone Carter (and even though free agency hasn't started, I'm still not counting Chris Hope). And while we all can agree that Carter could conceivably play all four defensive back positions at the same time without much problem, I don't think it will come to that. Like Israel mentioned earlier, the Steelers will probably re-sign both Logan and Stuvaints. First, because they'll need some depth and experience at the position -- especially if Chris Hope goes bye-bye, and second, because Pittsburgh released both players while recovering from injury, they can file a grievance under the Americans with Disabilities Act. (OK, not really, but I don't know the exact union language that allows players to collect lost wages due to being cut while injured; instead I'll use the less accurate, but much more pithy ADA reference, which becomes not so pithy after reading this explanation. Whatever.)

Despite what happens with Logan and Stuvaints, I have this weird feeling that Chris Hope will be back in Pittsburgh. And for the right price. At this point I'm not even sure how I feel about him returning, primarily because I'm knees-deep in draft coverage. And with about 60 days to go, the draft is kinda like Christmas when you're eight years old -- you spend the whole month of December getting yourself psyched up about how great everything is going to be, and when the day finally arrives, either your toys aren't as swell as they looked on the commercial, or none of your favorite stuff made it under the tree and you're stuck with the homemade flannel shirt grandma made for you at the senior center.

Anyway, I go through phases where I think a player like (the) Ohio State's Donte Whitner, or Tennessee's Jason Allen could be even better than Hope; and then I realize that Hope, although not spectacular, was consistent (OK, OK, I know -- we can all agree that he can't tackle Reuben Droughns), in the right place, and didn't give up the big play. Plus, there's also the little issue of rookies -- especially safeties -- learning the defense. Troy struggled a lot his first year, and Hope didn't become a starter until year three. What reason do we have to believe that a rookie can come in, pick everything up, and transfer that to the field in four months? My guess is nothing; and that's why Pittsburgh's probably going to bring back Logan and Stuvaints, and who knows, if they re-sign Deshea, move him to free safety for a season or two. OK, now I'm more confused than I was 15 minutes ago.

... Does anybody who watches college football know anything about OSU's Donte Whitner? I mentioned him a while back as Mike Mayock's number one safety, and he good numbers at the combine, but other than what I read, I have no idea what type of player he is. I guess there's been some discussion of him being quick enough to play CB, and he's been compared to Bob Sanders when it comes to hitting people (although Whitner's listed at 5'11, so he can at least see over the line of scrimmage), but there have been plenty of guys who've been labeled "can't miss" only to, well, miss big.

Another intriguing guy might be Jason Allen. He moved from safety to CB his senior year at Tennessee and had a serious hip injury. He was well enough to run in the 4.4's at the Combine and he's another guy, when healthy, who could be a difference maker. But just like Whitner, all I know about Allen is what I read and what I saw at the Combine. And unless the NFL changes its format so guys don't wear pads and TDs are determined by running sprints, Allen's 3-cone drill time may not matter much.

So that leads me back to Hope. All else being equal (including pay), isn't he the best option? And when I say "all else being equal," I'm also referring to his attitude. I've seen Cowher give him the business during the Titans game about making tackles, and I've seen Hope blame Farrior during the Super Bowl (and we've heard that he blamed Foote during the Browns game -- hey, maybe it's just linebackers that Hope doesn't like), but I don't know if these are exceptions, or something that happens on a weekly basis. Anyway, just something to think about while the NFL owners try to ruin my fall and winter plans.

***
Duce Staley re-structured his deal last week too. And this makes sense for a couple of reasons. Obviously, depending on how this CBA thing works out, the Steelers will need to cut some salaries to get under the cap, and given that Staley was scheduled to make $2.5 million, he seemed a likely candidate. Also, Staley probably realized that if Pittsburgh released him outright he would either (a) be out of the league, or (b) have to sign a veteran minimum deal somewhere; both prospects are worse than restructuring to stay with the Steelers.

I get the impression that the Steelers have big plans for Duce. And yes, I mean "big" in the literal sense; as in Duce has some big pants to fill because he's replacing the Bus. If Willie can continue to improve, Duce will basically be a part-time player which means there's only a 70 percent chance he'll get injured at some point during the 2006 season. Alright, maybe I'm exaggerating just a bit, but you know what I'm talking about. Having Willie carry the load, and using Duce for short yardage/late game situations should be beneficial to both guys. And if Pittsburgh can re-sign Verron -- which shouldn't be a problem if the CBA is worked out -- then all the better.

In terms of the draft, I would really, really (really, really) not be too happy if the Steelers took a running back in either of the first two rounds. Gerry Dulac mentioned in his Sporting News column that Sinorice Moss might be an attractive pick at #32 (but we know that's not going to happen ... I think), and I would prefer Moss to any of the running backs. People may disagree, but I'm of the opinion that unless you're 100 percent sure you're getting the next Jim Brown, you can get similar RB talent later in the draft at bargain prices (Everything must go!).

... Which reminds me, after watching the Combine a few weeks ago, here are some thoughts I had after watching the WRs:

* Chad Jackson, who's listed at 6'1", 200 lbs., ran a 4.32-forty. Before the Combine he was anywhere from a first to third round pick. After his super sprint, he was a first-rounder. I hope the Steelers don't have a chance to take this guy. I don't like it when players shoot up draft boards because they run fast in shorts. He might be the fastest person in the stadium, but if he can't beat press coverage, or -- gasp! -- catch, who cares? Plus, he's a Florida Gator, and they're track record with NFL QBs ain't too hot.

* Derek Hagin, Arizona St. WR who's often described as "polished," and a "great route runner," who struggles to "create separation." Well, until he ran in the 4.4s at the Combine. Now, all of a sudden, he's erased some doubt about his ability to stretch the field. How's that? Didn't he struggle for most of his career "stretching the field," and now, because he had a good 40-time, he's given scouts' pause? Whatever. I hope the Steelers don't take him (at least before the third round) either. In addition to all the concerns I mentioned above, he also has trouble holding on to passes, and looks a whole hell of a lot like Anthony Wright. That can never be a good thing.

***
One more thing before I go: LaVar Arrington coming to Pittsburgh might be the worst idea since the Steelers gave big contracts to both DeWayne Washington and Chad Scott (which is basically like saying, "We give up, and we're willing to pay a lot for it!"). Arrington may be from western PA, but so is Curtis Martin and Ty Law. And other than sharing that fact with each other, they also have in common this: they'll never play for the Steelers. OK, I shouldn't say never, but if I had to list these players by who I'd like to see in Pittsburgh, it would probably look something like this:

...

...

...

That's right, I'll take the zero. But if forced, I guess it would be: Ty Law, Curtis Martin, LaVar Arrington. Look, Arrington is a unbelievable athlete who is a difference-maker when he does his job. That said, he was -- at least according to a bunch of Washington Post stories -- a freelancer, and often found himself out of position because he was more interested in making the big play than doing his job within the defensive scheme. As a result, he found himself playing paper, rock, scissors with Patrick Ramsey on the sidelines for the early part of the season, while some dude named Warrick Holdman was ahead of him on the depth chart. Not only do the Steelers not need some guy coming in who's more interested in making one big play a game while giving up four or five, they already have a solid linebacking corps and I'm not sure what LaVar would add. In fact, if James Harrison and LaVar Arrington were locked in a room in a duel to the death, guess who I'm putting my money on? And I'm not even hesitating.

OK, that's all I got for now. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this CBA thing gets done so we can talk about important stuff like 40-times, and Mel Kiper's hair.