A Loser Picking the Winners, Week 1

I've been monkeying around with a simple model to predict winners over the course of the NFL season. Anyway, I'm going to put this model to work. Every Friday (I'm doing the first post on Thursday because of the Colts/Pats game tonight) I'll put up my picks against the spread and see exactly how well the model does. I have my suspicions about the efficacy of this venture of course, especially after my "can't miss" NCAA basketball winner's model. But hey, Thomas Edison once said:

"I have not failed 700 times. I have not failed once. I have succeeded in proving that those 700 ways will not work. When I have eliminated the ways that will not work, I will find the way that will work."

So I will use these words as my guide.

Back on earth, here are my week 1 picks (remember, these are picks against the spread, and it's not necessarily the team that actually wins the game). And one other note: if you're dopey enough to use these picks for monetary gain, you deserve to lose your shirt. If you want some indication about what kind of luck I have, consider this: I'm the same guy who hit his first little league home run only to be called out because I missed home plate. So you've been warned.

Here are the picks:

Home	Away	Line	Pick
NE	IND	-3	IND
STL	ARI	-10.5	ARI
NYJ	CIN	-4	CIN
BUF	JAX	-3	JAX
HOU	SD	-3.5	SD
WAS	TB	-2.5	TB
SF	ATL	3.5	SF
PHI	NYG	-9	NYG
CLE	BAL	2.5	CLE
CHI	DET	-3	CHI
PIT	OAK	-3.5	OAK
NO	SEA	2	NO
MIA	TEN	3	TEN
MIN	DAL	-4	DAL
DEN	KC	-3	KC
CAR	GB	-3	GB

I'll put a "pretend" Ben Franklin on every game and see how I do week to week. If by the end of the season I'm no more than $10,000 in the hole, I'll consider it a success.