Who is the best bargain at shortstop?

With all the Jeter bashing, I thought it was time to write at least one post that feigned objectivity. And in fact, I'll try not to mention Jeter unless I absolutely have to -- and I'll all together avoid mentioning him in a negative light (but if you're dying to hear such thoughts, you can go here and here).

Anyway, after hearing the latest round of rumors concerning Nomar being shipped to parts unknown (actually the Cubs, but "parts unknown" sounds a bit more mysterious) I got to thinking about who were the highest paid shortstops and how well their performance correlated to their salaries.

Well, I wasn't really surprised to find out that Jeter is currently the highest paid shortstop ($18.6 mil in '04) with Garciaparra second ($11.5 mil in '04). And while that's not news, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at which shortstops offer the best bang for the buck -- that is, who is most affordable given their output.

Here's what I did. Using data from ESPN.com, I created a makeshift measure of defensive prowess by multiplying range factor (RF) by zone rating (ZR). To estimate offensive effectiveness I combined two measures. The first measure adds runs, hits and walks minus strikeouts; the second measure is OPS (OBP + SLGP). I then multiplied the two measures for an overall measure of offensive prowess.

I then added the offensive and defensive measures and ranked them. I then ranked player salaries and ranked them as well. Finally, I combined the offensive/defensive rankings and the salary rankings; this allowed me to see who not only was having a good season (offensively and defensively), but it also allows me to take salaries into consideration (given that salaries are so much larger than the measures I created, I took the logs of salary and went through the same process. I found little difference in the overall findings).

The findings are interesting (at least I thought they were). The best bargain at shortstop based on first half statistics is the Rangers' Michael Young (he has the 23rd highest salary at his position), followed by Jack Wilson and Carlos Guillen. Derek Jeter ranked 23rd followed by Kaz Matsui and in last place...Montreal's Orlando Cabrera.

Here's a look at the top 10 shortstops and their statistics during the first half (ODS rank is the offensive/defensive ranking plus the salary ranking I described above and Salaries are in millions):

Player	R	H	BB	OPS	Salary	ODS rank
Michael Young	66	129	29	0.878	0.450	1
Carlos Guillen	66	110	37	0.950	2.500	2
Jack Wilson	47	119	11	0.845	1.850	2
Adam Everett	49	79	12	0.642	0.370	4
Bobby Crosby	41	80	25	0.774	0.300	5
Julio Lugo	46	92	29	0.772	1.750	5
Royce Clayton	65	98	29	0.811	0.650	7
Miguel Tejada	47	107	28	0.852	4.789	8
Cesar Izturis	39	103	24	0.698	0.359	9
Rafael Furcal	57	73	31	0.779	3.700	10

And here's a look and bottom 10 shortstops:

Player	R	H	BB	OPS	Salary	ODS rank
Alex Cintron	31	78	19	0.644	0.335	21
Jimmy Rollins	56	96	31	0.700	2.425	22
Angel Berroa	38	70	11	0.657	0.373	23
Omar Vizquel	51	96	34	0.754	6.250	24
Cristian Guzman	50	99	15	0.696	3.725	25
Edgar Renteria	53	95	25	0.742	7.250	26
Derek Jeter	55	100	20	0.786	18.600	27
Alex Gonzalez	31	75	10	0.715	2.800	28
Kaz Matsui	56	100	36	0.757	5.067	29
Orlando Cabrera	36	79	25	0.599	6.000	30

(Don't fret Red Sox haters, Nomar would have easily been at the bottom of the list but because he missed more than 50 games I didn't include him) Being at the bottom of the list is not necessarily an indictment against a particular shortstop's performance -- it also has something to do with (1) how big their salary is, and (2) how well other shortstops in the league are performing.

That said, it's pretty impressive that Miguel Tejada, who has the 9th highest SS salary, ranks 8th in the ODS statistic. Taken a step further, Tejada was first in his offensive/defensive production and the reason he was only ranked 8th overall was because of his large salary.

Another bright spot, in addition to Michael Young, is Jack Wilson. During his first season and a half in the majors he was never known to have much pop, but he already has eight jacks at the break. He ranked fourth overall in the offensive/defensive measure and 11th in overall salary. His ODS rank was second. I don't think many people would dispute that Wilson has been a surprise this season (although he has always been a solid fielder), but I doubt anyone would've considered him one of the best shortstops for the money going into 2004.

So I guess an important question to ask if you're a GM is this: "What tradeoff am I willing to make for production and salary?" That is, there's obviously a correlation between salary and production. The question then becomes how much production is a GM willing to pay? This question becomes easier if you're Brian Cashman or Theo Epstein, but requires a little more thought if you're Dave Littlefield or whoever the GM for the Royals is.

And even though the Yankees and Red Sox can afford to pay their shortstops $18.6 million and $11.5 million, respectively, the real question is does it make sense? Given that both of these teams are known to make trades on the fly -- fixing trouble spots as they arise during the season -- wouldn't they be better served by having more money on hand to address needs as they come up (or to at least act like you're trying to avoid the salary cap fines)?

Maybe. It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox offer Nomar when his contract expires at the end of the season (if he's still with the team), and given that it's a buyer's market (Tejada is only making $4.8 million this season), Nomar's best chance at getting paid may have been the contract he turned down last season.