Heels, Sox & Steelers

Should Antwaan Randle El have been a 2nd Round Pick?

During the 2003 season, Mark Madden, the Pittsburgh sports radio personality mentioned on more than one occasion that the Steelers could have better used their 2002 second round draft pick. His comments were precipitated (I think) by what he viewed as the inconsistent play of WR/PR/KR Antwaan Randle El.

Could the Steelers have better used the 30th pick in 2002? His comments motivated me to actually see how Randle El stacked up against other 2002 second round draft picks. Out of the 33 picks in the second round, only 13 were either RBs or WR/TEs. I decided to use players from one of these three positions (at least for this analysis) because without better measures, it is hard to compare, for example, a DE to a WR based on readily available statistics. That said, the 13 players were rated first on their rushing and receiving statistics for 2002 and 2003 (the 13 players listed by when they were taken in the second round: Jabar Gaffney (1), DeShaun Foster (2), Josh Reed (4), Tim Carter (14), Andre Davis (15), Reche Caldwell (16), Clinton Portis (19), Maurice Morris (22), Doug Jolley (23), Ladell Betts (24), Antwaan Randle El (30), Antonio Bryant (31), Deion Branch (33)).

When compared to the 13 players in 2002, Randle El ranked first in receptions, third in receiving yards, fourth in receiving TDs and 10th in yards per reception. When looking at his rushing statistics for 2002, Randle El ranked fourth in attempts and yards, third in TDs and second in yards per average. Randle El ranked 42nd in the NFL kickoff return average in 2002, ahead of all the players mentioned above who returned 10 or more kicks. He ranked 48th in the league in punt return average, also ahead of all 2002 second round picks with more than 10 returns.

In 2003, Randle El ranked sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, sixth in receiving TDs and seventh in yards per reception, where compared to the other second round draft picks. When looking at his rushing statistics for 2003, Randle El ranked fifth in attempts and eight in yards, sixth in TDs and third in yards per average. Randle El ranked 94th in the NFL kickoff returns 2003 behind only Ladell Betts, who ranked 92nd. He ranked tenth in the league in punt return average--ahead of all 2002 second round picks (in fact, no other player was in the top 50).

Looking strictly at the numbers it looks like Randle El had a much better 2002 than 2003 season. This can be explained by several things. First, some of the other second round picks did not get much playing time their rookie season and as a consequence, simply by playing, Randle El outperformed them. Also, 2002 was Randle El's first time playing WR/PR/KR on a full-time basis. Despite his declining offensive numbers in 2003 (which in part can probably be attributed to teams wary of Mularkey's penchant for trickery--usually involving Randle El, Ward, or both), his punt return numbers ranked him at the top of the league.

After two years I think it's hard to argue that Randle El was a bad 30th pick. In fact, if anyone were certain he would be this effective and versatile, he probably would have been an early second round pick in 2002. Of course an argument could be made (and was made) for taking Antonio Bryant, but with Burress and Ward firmly entrenched at WR and the versatility Randle El offers, I think it was the right pick.